Is the Indiana Senate race close? McDermott and Young tied in new poll

A new poll of the Indiana Senate race shows a statistical tie between incumbent Todd Young and challenger Tom McDermott.

The mayor of Hammond, Indiana appears to be giving Senator Todd Young – a first-term Republican from southern Indiana – a run for his money.

According to a poll from ARW Strategies, Todd Young is receiving support from 39 percent of likely Hoosier voters while Mayor Tom McDermott is receiving 37 percent. Libertarian candidate James Sceniak receives 6 percent of the vote in the poll.

The closeness of the race is due to a large number of undecided voters, Young’s relative weakness with his own party, and independents breaking for McDermott. The poll found that Young is only getting 76 percent support from Republicans. Meanwhile, McDermott is leading among independents by 8 points.

Young still favored

Despite the positive result for McDermott, experts believe that the race is still Young’s to lose given Indiana’s strong Republican lean and the historic pattern of the president’s party underperforming during midterm cycles. Nonetheless, this is a race that was largely overlooked until now.

“The numbers show a close race, but it’s tough to imagine a scenario where Todd Young doesn’t consolidate his base and end up winning closer to 90 percent of his own party’s voters. If Young does that, this race looks very different and puts himself closer to the mid-40% range on the topline numbers, and giving McDermott a much more difficult path,” said Andrew Weissert of ARW Strategies.

The ARW Strategies survey of 600 likely voters was conducted between September 25 and September 26 on behalf of Indy Politics. It has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

When is Election Day?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 8, 2022. If you plan on voting, the deadline to register to vote is Tuesday, October 11. You can register to vote here.

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